Well, the season's over, LSU's loser fans will unfortunately have something to hold over the rest of our heads despite being the worst mythical national champion in modern history - easily - and the blog will be moving on to other things. These things will be perfectly random, and posted as they come to me.
But first, the final results from the season - and black swan theory pays off yet again. Despite misgivings due to volatility over the course of the season, it turns out the 5:1+ category pays off the most, and the previously vaunted 3:1-4:1 category pays off the least.
The remaining question is one of compounding. Indeed, had we compounded the bets, the 5:1+ would have been out of the running in the very first week because, as you might have remembered, we had a 100% loss. Then again, we could have debited that account, added another bit of seed money and looked at the compounding later on, i.e. start with $1000 per category or whatever is left over from the accrued totals of the last week - whichever is greater.
The latter strategy interests me the most, and I'm planning on calculating just exactly what would have happened that way, but I'll have to set up a program that will do it automatically. Stay tuned.
Final point: I need more than one season of data. But for now, this'll have to do.
In any case, here it all is:
Remember, first of all, that I made $11,000 worth of hypothetical bets over the course of the season per category in eight categories; stated differently, that's $1000 per week per category, $8000 total per week, or $88,000 total for the season.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
Rankings Wreckage
Is there any doubt that Stewie Mandel is the best commentator extant? He knows his football, and he's eminently reasonable at all times. Look at his list of questions above his power rankings and tell me they don't make sense.
Stewie Mandel's Power Rankings
My only beef with them is that they still have LSU at the top, mitigated somewhat by his blog's admission that the played like garbage, which they did. Les Miles' admission that the pollsters probably didn't watch the game was also very startling in its candor, seeing as he is usually a blustering jackass. I suppose being ranked number one really elevates one's mood - it's hard to be the aggressor when your team is the new media darling.
I really hate to have to bash LSU - they're clearly a good team - but their fans are the worst in college football. They are whiny, consummate homers, and only use logic when it helps their case while disclaiming it if it should even hint at impugning the "hallowed" SEC or, God forbid, the Tigers. I've met a great, great many reasonable, fun, and smart football fans from almost every school in the country. I have yet to meet one from LSU. But this is all a story for another day.
As to the rest: Oregon moving up after its goal-line fumble to barely lose the game against a very strong Cal team - well that just makes sense. So what if they lost - they're better than most every team that won. USF being ranked in the top 5? Why not? They're playing like it. Of course, they could have an Oklahoma collapse, but who saw that one coming? And Wisconsin being the house of cards. Well duh. Of course, I said Texas was the house of cards (and I was right), but that one came fluttering down when they laid an egg against K-State, meaning that Wisconsin takes its rightful place as paper tiger number one.
Monday, October 1, 2007
Saturday's Carnage!
Sadly, your valiant handicapper was out of town this weekend, but thanks to a friend with a slingbox and a cell phone with an internet connection, he managed to watch quite a few games, as well as stay apprised of those he missed. In all, 5 of the top 10 managed to lose (and 7 of the top 13...and 10 of the top 25!). These are the days the handicapper lives for.
I've got the early results from my trusty matrix, and they look good for the risky bets. As you can imagine, what with the upsets of (overrated) Texas, (overrated) Rutgers, and a surprising loss by Florida, the 5:1+ category paid off big time. How does a 380% gain sound to you?
Even the hedged bets, which spread risk very well while managing to average a 30-60% week over week return, managed to give back an astonishingly generous 115% gain this week.
Only the 3:1-4:1 category lost this week (although the 1:1-4:1 had a 0% gain), and it would have been even worse had the oddsmakers not made Oregon the favorite in their home game against Cal. To be honest, I had Oregon pulling the upset, but a -260 favorite? That seems puzzling. In any case, the former category lost 40% this week.
I'll have full results up later on, as well as my take on the freakish nature of this true separation Saturday.
I've got the early results from my trusty matrix, and they look good for the risky bets. As you can imagine, what with the upsets of (overrated) Texas, (overrated) Rutgers, and a surprising loss by Florida, the 5:1+ category paid off big time. How does a 380% gain sound to you?
Even the hedged bets, which spread risk very well while managing to average a 30-60% week over week return, managed to give back an astonishingly generous 115% gain this week.
Only the 3:1-4:1 category lost this week (although the 1:1-4:1 had a 0% gain), and it would have been even worse had the oddsmakers not made Oregon the favorite in their home game against Cal. To be honest, I had Oregon pulling the upset, but a -260 favorite? That seems puzzling. In any case, the former category lost 40% this week.
I'll have full results up later on, as well as my take on the freakish nature of this true separation Saturday.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Saturday's Results
Just like I promised.
Your fearless handicapper just loves taking risks, because he is of the opinion that risk is where the reward is. This is, of course, borne out in life outside of the gambling world. Mezzanine financing certainly wouldn't exist if this were untrue. And no one would lend money to subprime mortgagors if they weren't planning on getting a commensurately higher return.
However, just like the subprime mortgagees, your fearless handicapper has found himself in something of a pickle this week, as none of the big boys paid off. Only 1 bet of 14 in that had 4:1 odds or higher paid off (thank you University of Connecticut!), and of the 10 bets that had 5:1 odds or higher, not a single one paid off. Not one. That's a lot of foreclosures.
Risk didn't have its reward...this week
Now that just hurts.
However, those bets that were between 3:1 and 4:1 odds, which did not include those high risks that didn't pan out this week, paid off fairly nicely.
Hedged bets did pretty well too...at very little risk
Naturally we're going in order of risk here, and the hedged bets come last; nevertheless, that doesn't mean that your very own handicapper doesn't like the hedged bets. Indeed, given the choice, that's where he'd go week in-week out, given the fact that he can't really afford to lose much and is willing to give up the possible upside for a lower risk. He's also just as drawn to them for their mathematical/statistical fascination value as he is drawn to referring to himself in the third person. It's all a moot point though, because, as my legal counsel has mentioned once or twice before, sports gambling is illegal. But here they are anyway.
Your fearless handicapper just loves taking risks, because he is of the opinion that risk is where the reward is. This is, of course, borne out in life outside of the gambling world. Mezzanine financing certainly wouldn't exist if this were untrue. And no one would lend money to subprime mortgagors if they weren't planning on getting a commensurately higher return.
However, just like the subprime mortgagees, your fearless handicapper has found himself in something of a pickle this week, as none of the big boys paid off. Only 1 bet of 14 in that had 4:1 odds or higher paid off (thank you University of Connecticut!), and of the 10 bets that had 5:1 odds or higher, not a single one paid off. Not one. That's a lot of foreclosures.
Risk didn't have its reward...this week
- The 5:1+ odds paid off $0 on $1000, for a 100% loss (ouch).
- The 4:1+ odds paid off $390 on $1000, for a 60% loss.
- The 3.5:1+ odds paid off $577 on $1000, for a 42% loss.
- Even the relatively tame 3:1+ odds paid off only $847 on $1000, for a 15% loss.
Now that just hurts.
However, those bets that were between 3:1 and 4:1 odds, which did not include those high risks that didn't pan out this week, paid off fairly nicely.
- In 4 wins of 12 bets, the 3:1 to 4:1 odds paid off $1545 on $1000, for a 54% gain.
Low Risk had plenty of reward...this week
If there was a consolation prize this week aside from the hedged bets (which the handicapper cannot help but love - more on that later), it was the surprising payouts from the lower-risk bets.
- The 1:1 through 4:1 odds saw 9 wins on 23 bets, paying off $1831 on $1000, for an 83% gain.
- The 1:1 through 3.5:1 odds paid off $1923 on $1000, for a 93% gain.
- The 1:1 through 3:1 odds paid off a whopping $2120 on $1000, for a quite good 112% gain.
Hedged bets did pretty well too...at very little risk
Naturally we're going in order of risk here, and the hedged bets come last; nevertheless, that doesn't mean that your very own handicapper doesn't like the hedged bets. Indeed, given the choice, that's where he'd go week in-week out, given the fact that he can't really afford to lose much and is willing to give up the possible upside for a lower risk. He's also just as drawn to them for their mathematical/statistical fascination value as he is drawn to referring to himself in the third person. It's all a moot point though, because, as my legal counsel has mentioned once or twice before, sports gambling is illegal. But here they are anyway.
- Betting on all of the underdogs paid off this week. That's 33 equal bets at an average risk moneyline spread of +302.58, or ever so slightly over 4:1 odds. On $1000 of bets, they all paid off to the tune of $1279, for a 28% gain.
- Betting on all of the underdogs with a bias toward spreading the risk, based on the all of the aforementioned categories, you will have ended up with 33 unequal bets, paying $1000 off to the tune of $1536, for a 54% gain. This, of course, is what your handicapper would have done, given the requisite legality. Your handicapper, also has a formula for weighting these unequal bets based on risk, but he couldn't give that away, could he?
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Early Results
It's 1:00 AM
...and the games are over. I've officially been watching college football for 15 hours straight. Do I get some kind of medal for that?
The matrix doesn't lie - here comes the math!
The 5:1+ dogs were godawful today. With no wins in this category, this was a fairly upsetting day for the Handicapper. It also seemed to throw off the the 3+, 3.5+, and 4+ categories, since I usually count on at least one big winner at 5:1+ to balance things out. In any case, the matrix showed me a -99% figure for the 5:1+ category. (It's -100%, obviously, but the matrix is rounding.)
Because the 5:1+ threw off all the other "+" categories, the big winners this week were the 3:1 - 4:1, 1:1 - 4:1, 1:1 - 3.5:1, and especially the 1:1 - 3:1 categories. The latter saw a 112% gain.
Of course, if you're into hedging your bets - and of course you are, since it's the textbook-smart thing to do - the dogs were good to you today. Not stellar, but what else would you expect from hedging? In any case, if you had $1000 to bet today, you would have made $1170 from it, including several overlapping bets.
If you had picked the correct category, which was the 1:1 - 3:1 column mentioned above, $1000 would have made you $2122 over a series of 15 bets, a whopping 9 of which were winners. That's a high percentage (60%) for a handicapper who is generally pleased with a 33% figure that, more often than not, turns a profit.
Naturally, full results will be up by tomorrow...or later (hey, it's 1:00 AM!).
Some final minutiae:
If you thought that there couldn't be a more annoying Chevy-commercial song than that saccarine Mellencamp dreck, you obviously didn't see the "if you want it/come and get it" song coming.
The Pac 10 is totally unpredictable (which the Handicapper loves). And it's a very good, very deep conference. Anyone who thinks differently (I'm talking to you, SEC homers!) probably can't see the nose in front of his face.
My legal counsel would like me to remind you that online sports betting is illegal. No, really. It is.
...and the games are over. I've officially been watching college football for 15 hours straight. Do I get some kind of medal for that?
The matrix doesn't lie - here comes the math!
The 5:1+ dogs were godawful today. With no wins in this category, this was a fairly upsetting day for the Handicapper. It also seemed to throw off the the 3+, 3.5+, and 4+ categories, since I usually count on at least one big winner at 5:1+ to balance things out. In any case, the matrix showed me a -99% figure for the 5:1+ category. (It's -100%, obviously, but the matrix is rounding.)
Because the 5:1+ threw off all the other "+" categories, the big winners this week were the 3:1 - 4:1, 1:1 - 4:1, 1:1 - 3.5:1, and especially the 1:1 - 3:1 categories. The latter saw a 112% gain.
Of course, if you're into hedging your bets - and of course you are, since it's the textbook-smart thing to do - the dogs were good to you today. Not stellar, but what else would you expect from hedging? In any case, if you had $1000 to bet today, you would have made $1170 from it, including several overlapping bets.
If you had picked the correct category, which was the 1:1 - 3:1 column mentioned above, $1000 would have made you $2122 over a series of 15 bets, a whopping 9 of which were winners. That's a high percentage (60%) for a handicapper who is generally pleased with a 33% figure that, more often than not, turns a profit.
Naturally, full results will be up by tomorrow...or later (hey, it's 1:00 AM!).
Some final minutiae:
If you thought that there couldn't be a more annoying Chevy-commercial song than that saccarine Mellencamp dreck, you obviously didn't see the "if you want it/come and get it" song coming.
The Pac 10 is totally unpredictable (which the Handicapper loves). And it's a very good, very deep conference. Anyone who thinks differently (I'm talking to you, SEC homers!) probably can't see the nose in front of his face.
My legal counsel would like me to remind you that online sports betting is illegal. No, really. It is.
Minutiae, part 2
Incredible finish. Georgia won it with a touchdown in overtime. What a game! I really feel bad for those gorgeous Bama coeds though. I'll comfort yall, if you feel like you need a hug...
Other Storylines:
Stanford is making it a game against Oregon. It's way too close for the Ducks' comfort at 21-17.
Washington is within striking distance of going up on UCLA. I've been really impressed with the play of Jake Locker. If there's anyone in the conference who can knock off the mighty Trojans, it'll be someone with a true dual-threat QB, like Washington or Oregon.
Highly touted recruit Mark Sanchez is playing quarterback for USC now. JD Booty was the #1 high school recruit five years ago, three years ago it was Sanchez, and two years ago it was freshly-minted Trojan (who went to L.A. via Arkansas) Mitch Mustain. The Trojans are just as stacked at quarterback as they appear to be at running back.
Stanford just took the lead over the Ducks! Washington just took the lead over UCLA!
Minnesota has just scored two touchdowns in a row to keep Purdue honest at 31-17.
Minutiae
This Georgia - Alabama game is a thriller in Tuscaloosa! Tied up at 20 with a minute left in regulation. Just. Wow. By the way, Brandon Coutu has hit a 58 yard field goal! He's got the leg to put Georgia up for good. 4th&2 with 12 seconds left. If I'm Richt, I wait on the kick, because a first down stops the clock. He got it! The kick.....is.....WIDE!Wow, this is what college gameday is all about! The entire state of Alabama needs to be on red-alert for heart attacks, and for once it has nothing to do with obesity.
Others:
USC Trojans are still rolling. They're finally running super-recruit Joe McKnight, who's gotten 15 yards on each of his 2 carries so far.
Wisconsin is trailing Iowa. Are the rankings useless or what?
UCLA is really not nearly as good people thought. Again: polls = useless.
Saturday Thoughts, Evening Edition
South Carolina kept LSU honest. I was expecting a blowout, but the Ol Ballcoach held LSU 
better than any team has been able to so far. There was no real doubt throughout the game who was going to win, but a blowout it wasn't. Oh, and was anyone else amused by the LSU commercial touting their awesome "landscape architecture" program? Doctor? Pffft. Lawyer? Pffft. Writer? Pffft. Come to LSU and be....a gardener!
Speaking of the Big 10, don't Iowa and Wisconsin look ugly? Wisconsin is known for playing it close to the vest early in the year, but they've had some scares. And now that we're in conference play, they're not doing much better. Minnesota and their barely-functional cornerbacks were expected to give up beaucoup yards against a pass-happy Purdue team, but here's a head-scratcher. The Golden Gophers have coughed the ball up as much so far this year as they did all of last year. Purdue hasn't so much scored on the porous cornerbacks as they have on capitalizing on turnovers. Minnesota does have a redshirt freshman quarterback in Adam Weber, which may have a lot to do with it, but if Tim Brewster wants to rebuild the program, he should start with ball control.
USC is rolling, but against Wazzu, who didn't see that coming? It's 35-7 at the beginning of the third quarter, and Chauncey Washington, the ninth-year junior (just kidding, but doesn't it seem like he's been there since Paul Hackett?) is actually playing. Despite apparently being made of glass - a condition that has led to injuries year in and year out despite a perceived talent on par with Reggie Bush - he is actually doing pretty well in this game. I give him another week before he breaks something.
better than any team has been able to so far. There was no real doubt throughout the game who was going to win, but a blowout it wasn't. Oh, and was anyone else amused by the LSU commercial touting their awesome "landscape architecture" program? Doctor? Pffft. Lawyer? Pffft. Writer? Pffft. Come to LSU and be....a gardener!Big 10
Well, the Michigan Wolverines pulled it off against Penn State. Apparently that's 9 in a row against one team, a losing streak that JoePa has never had before. It was a fairly ugly game, but there are a few things to take away here. One, Ryan Mallett has more poise and potential than any freshman quarterback. It's not just the linemen - he actually makes Jimmy Clausen look like a Pop Warner player. Two, Michigan is officially undefeated in the Big 10. A couple more games like this one, and they'll have a shot. Of course, they'll have to go through an Ohio State team that made mincemeat Northwestern and has generally been playing up this year.
Speaking of the Big 10, don't Iowa and Wisconsin look ugly? Wisconsin is known for playing it close to the vest early in the year, but they've had some scares. And now that we're in conference play, they're not doing much better. Minnesota and their barely-functional cornerbacks were expected to give up beaucoup yards against a pass-happy Purdue team, but here's a head-scratcher. The Golden Gophers have coughed the ball up as much so far this year as they did all of last year. Purdue hasn't so much scored on the porous cornerbacks as they have on capitalizing on turnovers. Minnesota does have a redshirt freshman quarterback in Adam Weber, which may have a lot to do with it, but if Tim Brewster wants to rebuild the program, he should start with ball control.More SEC
This Georgia vs. Alabama game is turning into a knock-down, drag-out slugfest. It's 17-10 UGA, late in the third. By the way, John Parker Wilson is turning into a primetime talent.
Kentucky is undefeated and very relevant in the SEC discussion! They knocked off a clearly overrated Arkansas team that nevertheless has some truly amazing power backs. I'd say that Houston Nutt is finished, but they need look no further than Kentucky's Rich Brooks for evidence that patience can sometimes pay off. It's been a ridiculous offseason for the Razorbacks, and I would think that Nutt needs another season to put it all together. Buuuut...who wants to bet that Darren McFadden will be playing on Sundays next year?
Pac 10
USC is rolling, but against Wazzu, who didn't see that coming? It's 35-7 at the beginning of the third quarter, and Chauncey Washington, the ninth-year junior (just kidding, but doesn't it seem like he's been there since Paul Hackett?) is actually playing. Despite apparently being made of glass - a condition that has led to injuries year in and year out despite a perceived talent on par with Reggie Bush - he is actually doing pretty well in this game. I give him another week before he breaks something.The Golden Bears of Cal took it to Arizona, in a game that wasn't even as close as the not-very-close-at-all score would suggest. If you want to talk about coaches who haven't been effective, take a look at Mike Stoops. He ought to be handed his walking papers before Houston Nutt. (Of course, I'd rather have...well, neither.)
Fantasy Scenario
Who wants LSU's trash? If Lloyd Carr is done after this year, as all signs are pointing to, why would Michigan take Les Miles when Norm Chow is still laboring in obscurity in the no-fun league? This is a man who should have been a head coach more than a decade ago! He openly coveted the Stanford head coaching job and bolted for the NFL only after he was (stupidly) passed up for Walt Harris. Think he would turn down the pilot's seat at Michigan? I know that Michigan likes having coaches who are "Michigan Men," but taking Les Miles over Norm Chow just because of ties to the school would be a stupid move.
Independents
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have never been 0-4. Ever. That is, until today.
Upset #1
Syracuse over Louisville
Gotta hand it to the Louisville fourth-quarter attitude, as they almost pulled it out. But you can't play that badly for 50 minutes and expect to win, even against a team like Syracuse, which hasn't beaten a ranked team since...well, they haven't even won in recent memory.
Congratulations to Syracuse for a dominating performance.
Nebraska over Ball State
It took a last second missed field goal for the Huskers to win this one. This doesn't look good for USC's schedule strength!
Virginia over Georgia Tech
Virginia has got the Yellow Jackets' number. It's been, I think, nine games in a row that have gone to the Cavaliers now!
Gotta hand it to the Louisville fourth-quarter attitude, as they almost pulled it out. But you can't play that badly for 50 minutes and expect to win, even against a team like Syracuse, which hasn't beaten a ranked team since...well, they haven't even won in recent memory.
Congratulations to Syracuse for a dominating performance.
Nebraska over Ball State
It took a last second missed field goal for the Huskers to win this one. This doesn't look good for USC's schedule strength!
Virginia over Georgia Tech
Virginia has got the Yellow Jackets' number. It's been, I think, nine games in a row that have gone to the Cavaliers now!
Minutiae
Holy Hell!
Into the fourth quarter and Syracuse is still up! It's 31-21, and Louisville can't get anything going, to go with the given that is their lack of defense. You can't count the 'ville out with 12 minutes left and quarterback like Brian Brohm, but you have to think that for a program as recently dreadful as 'Cuse, this is a moral victory no matter what the result.
Update: The Orange are moving the ball at will on this Louisville "defense." Before this game, Syracuse was 116th in offense (out of 118 teams - or 119, if you count Notre Dame's "offense" as an actual offense). And they're back in the end zone. 38-21 in the fourth quarter. This is the type of game the Handicapper lives for!
Husked
Nebraska must have been demoralized by USC (either that or they're just having an off-week, but one sounds much better from an editorial standpoint). They're really struggling against Ball State. 16 minutes left and they're down 31-28.
Updates:
Florida had to wait until the second quarter, but they blew the game against Ole Miss open. Give the Rebels credit for consistency though - they've scored a field goal in each quarter. (Methinks I spoke too soon: The Rebels just scored a couple of quick ones to make it 24-28!) West Virginia crushed the ECU Pirates. No surprises there. Boston College is beating Army, and NC State is losing. Poor Tom O'Brien. South Florida ran away with the game against UNC. It's 37-3 with six minutes left. Let's just call it over. Oh, and Lou Holtz is still alive.
Fantasy Scenario:
Let's pit Notre Dame against Louisville! The most underachieving offense of the year against their most underachieving defensive counterparts = pillowfight of the year!
However, Louisville has shown some guts on offense, if not this week, and Notre Dame's defense, while not as disgusting as their offense, hasn't done much for the Irish either. I'd call it for Louisville in a runaway.
Into the fourth quarter and Syracuse is still up! It's 31-21, and Louisville can't get anything going, to go with the given that is their lack of defense. You can't count the 'ville out with 12 minutes left and quarterback like Brian Brohm, but you have to think that for a program as recently dreadful as 'Cuse, this is a moral victory no matter what the result.Update: The Orange are moving the ball at will on this Louisville "defense." Before this game, Syracuse was 116th in offense (out of 118 teams - or 119, if you count Notre Dame's "offense" as an actual offense). And they're back in the end zone. 38-21 in the fourth quarter. This is the type of game the Handicapper lives for!
Husked
Nebraska must have been demoralized by USC (either that or they're just having an off-week, but one sounds much better from an editorial standpoint). They're really struggling against Ball State. 16 minutes left and they're down 31-28.
Updates:
Florida had to wait until the second quarter, but they blew the game against Ole Miss open. Give the Rebels credit for consistency though - they've scored a field goal in each quarter. (Methinks I spoke too soon: The Rebels just scored a couple of quick ones to make it 24-28!) West Virginia crushed the ECU Pirates. No surprises there. Boston College is beating Army, and NC State is losing. Poor Tom O'Brien. South Florida ran away with the game against UNC. It's 37-3 with six minutes left. Let's just call it over. Oh, and Lou Holtz is still alive.
Fantasy Scenario:
Let's pit Notre Dame against Louisville! The most underachieving offense of the year against their most underachieving defensive counterparts = pillowfight of the year!
However, Louisville has shown some guts on offense, if not this week, and Notre Dame's defense, while not as disgusting as their offense, hasn't done much for the Irish either. I'd call it for Louisville in a runaway.
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